June 2, 2011; Source: Crain's New York Business | Although there have been occasional glimmers of hope on the nonprofit hiring front, it appears some rosy predictions were premature. A sign that things might actually get worse, not better, comes from the Human Services Council of New York, which Crain's New York Business describes as "an umbrella organization of nonprofits."

The group is warning that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's cuts totaling 2.3 percent to the state budget could result in the loss of more than 11,000 nonprofit jobs in New York City. It bases its predictions on a formula of one job loss for every $35,000 in cuts. According to Crain's, cuts to the state's budget have forced New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg to propose trimming $400 million in social services. That's to cover costs for other services the state mandates that the city provides but doesn't always fund. “The city had to make up the differences in mandated services,” said Chris Winward, senior policy analyst at the Human Services Council.

Social workers and case managers are likely to be most affected by the layoffs. While it's clear that there's pain ahead, Crain's notes that making predictions about job losses "is more art than science." That's small comfort for people Winward says are already receiving notices their jobs have been eliminated.—Bruce Trachtenberg